President Trump has been racking up big wins—and fast. In just the past week, he’s seen the Supreme Court side with red states against Planned Parenthood, watched his “One Big Beautiful Bill” pass in the Senate, and delivered a rally that drew crowds so massive, CNN cut away mid-coverage just to stop the embarrassment. The economy’s surging, deportations are ramping up, and the MAGA base is fired up like it’s 2016 all over again.
But with all that winning, Trump made one strategic misstep, and unfortunately, it’s coming with a high price tag: he may have just put the Senate in serious danger in 2026, and with it, his ability to pass the rest of his America First agenda.
Senator Thom Tillis of North Carolina broke ranks with Trump and voted against advancing the President’s landmark “One Big Beautiful Bill.” The bill, a signature Trump initiative packed with wins for conservatives, had overwhelming support from the grassroots. But Sen. Tillis sided with Senate holdouts, and that didn’t sit well with 47.
In classic Trump fashion, the President didn’t let it slide. He publicly floated the idea of backing a primary challenger against Tillis in 2026. Not long after, Tillis announced he wouldn’t seek re-election.
On the surface, this might sound like a solid win for MAGA, after all, ditching weak-kneed Republicans has been part of the Trump strategy from day one. But it’s also put a key Senate seat in play, and handed Democrats a big break.
Tillis’s exit could hand Democrats a golden opportunity in a tight race. The GOP’s Senate majority is razor-thin as it is, and with vulnerable seats in Maine, Iowa, and now North Carolina, 2026 could turn into a dogfight.
While North Carolina often feels like a red state, it’s far from a sure thing in elections. Trump won the state in both 2016 and 2020, but only by razor-thin margins: 3.7% in 2016 and just 1.3% in 2020. In the 2022 midterms, GOP Sen. Ted Budd won his race by only 3 points against Democrat Cheri Beasley, a former state Supreme Court justice with strong name ID and national funding. And in 2020, Democrat Cal Cunningham nearly defeated Thom Tillis, falling short by less than 2%. And voters just elected a Democrat to be Governor of the state.
In other words, this isn’t Alabama. North Carolina is a battleground, and Democrats have been pouring money into flipping it for years.
That’s not to say Trump was wrong to call out Tillis. He’s holding Republicans accountable. But timing matters, and Tillis stepping aside now means the GOP has to find a strong replacement fast to prevent Democrats from swooping in and flipping the seat.
It’s not just about one Senate race, either. If Democrats were to gain control of one or both chambers of Congress in 2026, they’d kill any momentum behind Trump’s legislative agenda. And worse, they’d block any future Supreme Court nominee Trump might put forward.
That’s the real concern.
But let’s not overstate it: Trump still holds the cards. His influence is stronger than ever, and with the right candidate in North Carolina, this situation could still turn into a win. After all, it’s not the first time Trump’s instincts have paid off, even when the swamp doubted him.
Still, this is a reminder that every Senate seat counts, and even one misstep can shift the battlefield.
The path forward? Rally, regroup, and replace weak Republicans with America First fighters who won’t blink when it’s time to vote. If Trump does that, not only can he hold the Senate, he can expand it.
But no one said draining the swamp would be easy.